GUEST COLUMN.
COUNTIES AND THE BIG SHIFT
By Teryn Zmuda, chief research officer and chief economist, National Association of Counties
Two weeks ago, the National Association of Counties (NACo) Board of Directors gathered in Wise County, Texas — home of our sitting president, Judge J.D. Clark. Alongside board business, county leaders heard from expert storytellers and examined the importance of sharing our county story. Why? Because a change is coming, and our communities are depending on us to talk about it.
Earlier this year, NACo published a report called The Big Shift, with robust analysis and a simple message: H.R. 1 – the massive reconciliation package passed in July, which is also known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act – will shift financial and administrative costs onto subnational levels of government. The downstream effect of this, alongside changes to annual appropriations, could approach $1 trillion over the next 10 years.
H.R. 1 represents a dramatic inflection point that will lead to the passage of costs and administrative responsibilities from the federal government, down to counties and other state and local governments. The two biggest issues are:
Increased costs for counties, like absorbing additional costs for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) administration and benefits, implementing new work requirements for SNAP and Medicaid, and growing demand for county services as the uninsured population grows.
Reduced local autonomy because the more counties face mandates and limited resources, the less flexibility we have to meet the diverse needs of our residents.
Ultimately, it is our residents who will share the burden of the big shift. As counties lose federal support and take on new costs, counties will be forced to weigh tradeoffs like reducing services, raising taxes or delaying or canceling infrastructure investments.
A story to tell
Counties recently got a taste of what a big shift feels like. The longest-ever federal government shutdown – 43 days in total – was not a one-to-one comparison with what lies ahead for county governments. But it was a reminder of how indispensable intergovernmental partnership is.
Shutdowns don’t simply stall federal processes in Washington, their impacts cascade through county courthouses, public health departments, jails, election offices, transit systems and human services agencies. Counties found themselves bracing to keep critical programs running nutrition assistance, public safety operations, infrastructure projects, emergency management coordination and more.
In many places, county leaders were preparing to serve as the backstop — working to ensure residents didn’t lose access to essential services, even as local administrators scrambled for contingency plans. That pressure, now familiar after several shutdown standoffs in recent years, revealed a core truth: residents’ needs are growing, regardless of where the funding and administrative responsibilities lie.
As the governments closest to our residents, counties see it all firsthand and end up providing for our residents in need. During the shutdown, counties prepared to fill in for those losing SNAP benefits, pitched in to keep national parks open, and absorbed costs to keep programs running and projects on track.
County leaders are stepping to the plate to tell their stories.
Strengthening the intergovernmental partnership
We tell those stories not as a warning, but as a demonstration of how counties can act as essential intergovernmental partners. When we bring our frontline perspective and on-the-ground experience into national policymaking, it fosters collaboration and leads to smarter policies and better results for communities.
Last month, Congress advanced the SPEED Act, legislation that would codify counties’ role in permitting reform. If enacted, the bill would give counties a seat at the table during the environmental review process – exactly the collaboration that affirms local governments’ role.
County advocacy continues – right now counties are asking for passage of the FEMA Act, a long-term Farm Bill, and more, all geared towards intergovernmental partnerships that support residents, rather than shifting burdens onto them.
As we discussed in Wise County, counties are not passive recipients of policy; we are pillars of the intergovernmental system, and now is the time for counties, and our champions, to speak up for that crucial partnership and the policies that will underpin it in the years ahead.
The contents of this Guest Column are those of the author, and not necessarily Barrett and Greene, Inc.
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