WILDFIRES: HOW TO MANAGE A CRISIS

In the wake of the pandemic, we co-wrote a paper for the IBM Center for the Business of Government in collaboration with renowned government expert Don Kettl. It was titled “Managing The Next Crisis: Twelve Principles For Dealing With Viral Uncertainty.”

At the time, we weren’t anticipating another pandemic coming around very quickly, but we thought that lessons learned from COVID could – and should -- apply to other catastrophic intrusions on life. As we wrote at the time, “Crises will come and go, regardless of the lessons learned (or ignored) Good governance will not stop hurricanes, terrorists, floods, wildfires, heat waves, or cyberattacks from disturbing society’s smooth functioning.”

With the horrific losses of property and life in the Los Angeles area wildfires, we thought it might be worthwhile to borrow from our work back then and share ten of the principles we espoused that continue to seem very pertinent now:  

1. Data is key to understanding a problem well enough to develop a solution, but the various players responding must be able to communicate with one another using consistent terms, definitions, and methodology for the data.

2.  Solutions to many major crises, from wildfires to hurricanes to the pandemic, require assets like hoses, sandbags, masks, and vaccines.  Central coordination for their procurement prevents various involved players from competing against one another, which can lead to higher prices and unnecessary shortages.

3. The pandemic demonstrated an increasing absence of the necessary personnel to deal with a health care crisis. The nation must develop better means for growing the next generation of experts in multiple fields who can serve in times of need.

4. Technology is a central element to solving most modern problems, though not the only element. Used with care, artificial intelligence can help governments to better understand problems and form solutions.

5. Unlikely events that have high potential consequences still require preparation. Risk management can help weigh the odds and spell out plans for future calamities.

6. When addressing a major crisis, organizing all the participants trying to respond is necessary. Unfortunately, these kinds of networks must be consciously formed. They do not come together spontaneously.

 7. When many people face great risk, they must trust those who lead response and recovery—or those interventions are severely impeded. 

8. States and localities often help find solutions by trying a variety of different approaches to solving a problem. Ignoring the lessons learned across the states makes their experiments less productive.

9. For the United States to progress, the population as a whole must be treated fairly. The pandemic revealed that without addressing social and economic inequities, disasters will harm huge segments of the population disproportionately.

10. Holding institutions and individuals accountable helps ensure responsible actions. This requires knowing exactly how to define and measure success

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